Is the macro–to–crypto channel breaking?
The regime classifier’s on-chain panel implicitly assumes that risk-on macro conditions translate to crypto inflows. That assumption is becoming harder to defend when the marginal speculative dollar shows up in NVDA, Kalshi, and private secondaries instead. These three indicators try to measure the transmission channel directly. If they sit persistently low while macro reads risk-on, they argue the composite should be tempered — the macro tailwind isn't reaching crypto. Not yet wired into the composite; this page is the "does the signal look real?" check before deciding whether to add them to the on-chain panel.
1. BTC β vs risk-appetite factor
90-day rolling OLS beta of BTC daily returns regressed on (QQQ − SPY) daily returns. The (QQQ − SPY) spread isolates the high-beta-tech component — when investors crave duration and growth, this widens. A high BTC beta means crypto moves with that appetite (the channel works). A beta that compresses toward zero, or flips negative, means crypto has decoupled — risk-on flow is being absorbed elsewhere.
2. BTC / QQQ relative-strength percentile
BTC/QQQ price ratio, 3-year rolling percentile rank. A direct race between “buy BTC” and “buy the AI-tech basket.” Below the 50th percentile and falling means QQQ is winning the relative-strength contest — speculation is rotating into AI/tech megacaps.
3. Stablecoin float growth vs QQQ growth (90d)
90-day percent change in total stablecoin float minus 90-day percent change in QQQ price. A direct flow proxy: are speculative dollars showing up as new stables (crypto rails) or as price-driven AUM in nasdaq (equity rails)? Positive readings mean crypto rails are absorbing the marginal speculative dollar; negative readings mean it is going to equities.
How this would feed the regime composite
These three indicators belong in the on-chain panel. When risk-on macro is loud (macro panel > 0.7) but the channel indicators are weak (e.g., BTC β < 0.5× its long-run median, or BTC/QQQ percentile < 30, or 90d flow diff sustained negative), the on-chain panel should reflect that — pulling the composite back toward neutral. The current on-chain panel reads crypto activity in isolation, so a quiet crypto market that's quiet because the marginal speculative dollar went elsewhere shows up the same as a quiet crypto market that's quiet because macro itself is risk-off. These signals separate those cases.
They also age more gracefully than indicator-of-the-day signals like “BTC active addresses”: they measure the general phenomenon (is crypto absorbing risk-appetite flow?), not a specific channel that may matter less next cycle. If speculation rotates again in 2028, the same indicators automatically capture whichever asset class wins, because they reference QQQ and BTC at the universal “flagship speculative asset” level.
Back to /regime.