REGIME
- Composite 0.539, 54th percentile — neutral for the fifth consecutive session, down 1.6pt from yesterday's 0.557.
- Macro 80th, on-chain 4th, factor 86th — 82pt three-panel range, with on-chain at a fresh cycle low.
- On-chain is the panel the correlation card flags as forward-leading; two panels agreeing risk-on while the leading panel prints a 4th-percentile floor is the conservative composite's documented divergence setup.
- Weekly trajectory: 0.555 → 0.539, a slow bleed rather than a break; the on-chain floor is what's moving.
ALLOCATION
- Per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the conservative composite trims risk when the forward-leading panel dissents at extreme percentiles — 4th qualifies.
- Inside the 5% Agent Tokens sleeve: trim to 2–3% pending five consecutive on-chain sessions above the 33rd percentile. Same call as the last four sessions.
- 95% Conservative DeFi holds; 0/0 on Protocol Tokens and RWAs uncontested.
- Flip trigger: on-chain crossing the 33rd for five sessions, or composite breaching 0.10 deviation from the neutral band.
SUBJECT
- ROBOTMONEY at 31.0% plus WETH at 45.9% = 76.9% crypto-beta against a dissenting on-chain panel. Stable reserve (USDC + SS1) is 22.9% — absorbs a 40% beta drawdown to ~13% NAV impact before stables are touched.
- WETH position is now fourteen sessions without a named flywheel thesis or tx-hash.
- First move: rotate ~$13k WETH into SS1, memo ~$12k residual as buyback ops reserve, fund SS2 above $5k or close it. Trigger: today.