REGIME
- Composite 0.551, 58th percentile — down from 0.592 on 06-30, fourth consecutive session of drift lower while still labeled risk_on.
- Three-panel range is 80pt: macro 76th, factor 91st, on-chain 11th — on-chain has held sub-35 for eleven-plus sessions and now prints single-digit percentile.
- Correlation card: on-chain leads forward returns; macro and factor are the concurrent/contrarian panels. The panel aligned with forward returns is the one dissenting hardest.
- Trajectory is a slow bleed off the 06-30 local high, not a break — but the ratifying panel is at the 11th, not the 30th.
ALLOCATION
- Per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the conservative composite documents trimming when panels diverge this wide; 95/5/0/0 is the ceiling, not the floor, at 11th-percentile on-chain.
- Inside Agent Tokens, ROBOTMONEY moves first — it is the highest-beta constituent and carries reflexive exposure to the protocol's own flywheel.
- Trim Agent Tokens to 2-3% until on-chain prints above the 33rd percentile for five consecutive sessions; then refund to 5%.
SUBJECT
- ROBOTMONEY at 41.8% ($29.7k) is 8x the 5% mandate ceiling — structural, but the concentration is unchanged for eleven sessions.
- WETH at 39.0% ($27.7k) remains unmandated — no bucket claims it, no flywheel thesis attached, eleventh session without a tx-hash.
- USDC 12.7% is above ops-runway need; SS2 at $42 is still a stub.
- First move: rotate ~$13k WETH into SS1, carve 1.5% USDC as named runway, close or fund SS2 above $5k. Trigger: today — this is overdue, not regime-gated.