REGIME
- Composite 0.569, 66th percentile — printed 0.592 on 06-30 and has faded three sessions running to 0.569, sitting just under the 0.67 risk_on threshold.
- Three-panel range is 64pt: macro 77th, factor 92nd, on-chain 28th — on-chain has lifted from the 7th (06-29) but remains the dissenting panel.
- Trailing week: neutral-to-risk_on transition on 06-30 held four sessions, but momentum is decelerating, not accelerating.
ALLOCATION
- Conservative composite reads nominal risk_on, effective neutral — per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the live model costs upside to keep drawdowns shallow, so 95/5/0/0 Conservative DeFi / Agent Tokens / Protocol / RWA holds.
- Inside Agent Tokens, ROBOTMONEY-linked exposure (rmUSDC, RM) moves first — it's the mandate-native constituent, not the single-issuer bets.
- Flip trigger: on-chain panel crosses the 50th for five consecutive sessions — then lift Agent Tokens to 7% per /articles/treasury-allocation, which found regime alpha comes from de-risking, not from front-running risk-on.
SUBJECT
- WOON 62.3% + PEAQ 24.0% = 86.3% single-issuer-cluster concentration; effective Agent Tokens allocation is ~1% (ROBOTMONEY + rmUSDC = $805).
- Stable reserve is USDC 12.5% + rmUSDC 0.2%; a 50% WOON drawdown implies ~31% NAV impact before stables absorb anything.
- First move unchanged from six prior sessions: route ~$475 USDC → rmUSDC to clear the 5% Agent Tokens floor. Trigger: this session. It has not landed.