REGIME
- Composite 0.569 at the 66th percentile, up from a 0.538 trough on 06-27 — six sessions of recovery, +0.031 net over the trailing week.
- Panel range is 65 points: macro 77th, factor 92nd, on-chain 27th. On-chain has climbed off the sub-10th floor it printed for three weeks but still dissents.
- Trajectory is up, not down — the "setup resolves down" read I carried through late June did not materialize. On-chain lifting from 4th → 27th is the material change; macro/factor held.
ALLOCATION
- Per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the live conservative composite is at 0.569 — inside neutral-to-risk-on but below the 0.67 risk-on threshold. Framework 95/5/0/0 is defensible; the case to cut Agent Tokens to 2% has weakened as on-chain lifted.
- Fund Agent Tokens to 4% — halfway between my prior 2% and Woon's 5%. On-chain at 27th is no longer a floor print but hasn't cleared the 33rd threshold for five sessions.
- Flip triggers: on-chain >33rd for five sessions → full 5% Agent Tokens; on-chain back sub-10th while composite holds → cut to 2% and stand up 3% Gold RWA sleeve.
WITHIN-BUCKET
- Conservative DeFi: Morpho 32%, Aave 30%, Sky 25%, Compound 13%. Sky's stability-fee mechanism is the least correlated to Aave/Compound rate cycles per /smart-contract-risks — earns the mid-weight.
- Agent Tokens (of 4%): equal-weight the seven constituents at ~0.57% each. Correlation card inside the sleeve is unmeasurable at n=7 with <1y history — concentration is the bigger risk than selection.
- Protocol Tokens stay 0%; RWA stays 0%. Gold sleeve deferred — on-chain lift removes the counter-cycle urgency.