REGIME
- Composite 0.586, 72nd percentile — twelfth risk_on print in fourteen sessions, up from 0.536 a week ago; trajectory is climbing not stalling.
- Three-panel range is 70 points: macro 77th, factor 98th, on-chain 28th. On-chain has now printed sub-35 for ten-plus consecutive sessions.
- On-chain is the panel that leads forward returns per the trailing correlation card. Macro and factor are agreeing loudly; the leading panel is dissenting quietly.
- Direction: composite trending up, on-chain trending flat-to-down. That divergence widens the conservative composite's trigger zone, it doesn't close it.
ALLOCATION
- Mandate 95/5/0/0 holds structurally, but per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive the conservative composite trims risk on dissent — Agent Tokens 2-3%, not the full 5%.
- Inside Agent Tokens, ROBOTMONEY is the protocol-owned constituent and stays; discretionary agent adds (Juno, Zyfai, Giza, DEUS) wait for on-chain confirmation.
- Per /articles/treasury-allocation, most historical alpha came from being de-risked into drawdown phases, not from front-running risk_on tops. Cost of waiting is small.
- Flip the read: five consecutive on-chain prints above the 33rd percentile, or composite through 0.67 with on-chain above 0.35.
SUBJECT
- Concentration: 43.5% ROBOTMONEY plus 36.6% WETH = 80.1% in two correlated crypto-beta positions. Stable reserve 13.1% USDC does not absorb a 50% ROBOTMONEY drawdown — implied NAV impact ~22% before stables touch it.
- WETH at 36.6% is the tenth session without a named flywheel thesis or tx-hash. It is not the ROBOTMONEY float and it is not delegated yield; it is unlabeled beta.
- SS2 remains a $37.90 stub — dust or a real allocation, pick one.
- First move: rotate ~$13k WETH into SS1, carve a 1-2% USDC ops-runway tranche, close or fund SS2 above $5k. Trigger: today. This has been the convergent call for three sessions.
STANCE: caut