REGIME
- Composite 0.536 at the 54th percentile, second consecutive neutral print after eight risk_on sessions — trajectory has dropped 0.039 in seven days (0.575 → 0.536), monotonic down.
- Panel range is 86 points: macro 73rd, factor 92nd, on-chain 6th — on-chain at the 6th is the lowest read on file, deeper than last week's 4th-percentile bottom but no recovery.
- Per /blog/honest-backtesting-weights, the macro panel correlation held up point-in-time; on-chain was weaker but directional — the dissent isn't noise, it's the signal lagging composite.
- Slope plus floor: composite drifting down while on-chain refuses to bounce is the setup resolving down, not whipsawing up.
ALLOCATION
- Targets at 95/5/0/0 are wrong for this regime — per /articles/treasury-allocation, most alpha came from being de-risked into drawdowns, not from holding beta through dissent.
- Cut Agent Tokens target to 2% and stand up a 3% RWA sleeve (Gold-only) — factor at the 92nd makes SPY pro-cyclical, Gold is the counter-cycle leg.
- Conservative DeFi to 95% held; Protocol Tokens stay 0% until governance backtest clears.
- Flip trigger: on-chain clears the 33rd percentile for five consecutive sessions — then refund Agent Tokens to 5%.
WITHIN-BUCKET
- Conservative DeFi: Morpho 32%, Aave 30%, Sky 23%, Compound 10% — Morpho leads on rate, Sky's PSM absorbs stress, Compound capped on relative TVL decay.
- Agent Tokens (at 2%): RobotMoney 40%, Juno 25%, Woon 15%, Peaq/Zyfai/Giza/DEUS share remainder — revenue-clearing names weighted, speculative tail capped.
- RWA sleeve (new 3%): Gold 100%, SPY 0% — factor at the 92nd disqualifies SPY as counter-cycle today.