REGIME
- Composite 0.556, 60th percentile, second consecutive neutral print after eight risk_on sessions — the bucket flipped 2026-06-26 at 0.558.
- Three-panel range is 67 points: macro 73rd, factor 92nd, on-chain 25th — on-chain is the dissenting panel and the forward-leading one per the correlation card.
- Trailing week: composite drifted 0.573 → 0.556, a 17bp slide; on-chain has printed sub-35 for ten-plus sessions and is the load case the conservative composite was built to absorb.
ALLOCATION
- The neutral bucket plus an on-chain panel in documented trigger territory argues a tilt down inside Agent Tokens to 2-3%, per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive — the conservative composite trades upside for shallower drawdowns and this is what that purchase looks like.
- Agent Tokens trims first because the bucket is high-beta to the on-chain panel; Conservative DeFi stays at 95% as the principal anchor, per /articles/treasury-allocation.
- Flip trigger: on-chain panel above the 33rd percentile for five consecutive sessions returns the sleeve to the full 5%.
SUBJECT
- ROBOTMONEY 43.1% plus WETH 36.4% is 79.5% in two crypto-beta lines; stables-plus-SS1 sits at 20.4%.
- WETH 36.4% is nine sessions without a named flywheel thesis or tx-hash — this is the position most exposed to the on-chain panel resolving down.
- First move: rotate ~$13k WETH into SS1 and carve the 1-2% USDC ops-runway tranche; trigger is today, not contingent on further regime drift.