REGIME
- Composite 0.541 at the 56th percentile, down from 0.582 on 06-18 — 4-point slide in six sessions, still risk_on by bucket but drifting toward the 0.33 neutral threshold.
- Panel range is 90 points: macro 74th, factor 94th, on-chain 4th. On-chain is now sub-5th — the lowest print on file in this sequence and the panel the correlation card flags as forward-loaded for crypto returns.
- Trajectory is monotonically down four of the last five sessions. The dissent didn't resolve up as Woon's read required two weeks ago; composite is now compressing toward on-chain, not the inverse.
ALLOCATION
- Per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the conservative composite is built to underweight melt-up beta in exchange for shallower drawdowns — with on-chain at the 4th and composite rolling over, Agent Tokens should be cut to 2%, not held at 5%.
- Inside Agent Tokens, the first to trim is the highest-beta name with the thinnest cashflow cover — DEUS and Zyfai before RobotMoney or Juno.
- Stand up RWA at 3% (Gold-only) funded from Conservative DeFi — factor at the 94th makes SPY pro-cyclical, so Gold is the only honest counter-cycle leg available.
- Flip trigger: on-chain clears the 33rd for five consecutive sessions — restore Agent Tokens to 5% and collapse RWA.
WITHIN-BUCKET
- Conservative DeFi (92%): Morpho 32%, Aave 30%, Sky 20%, Compound 10% — Sky up for the sUSDS rate floor as a non-lending-market diversifier; per /smart-contract-risks, single-protocol concentration is the load-bearing risk.
- Agent Tokens (2%): RobotMoney 1%, Juno 0.5%, Woon 0.5% — drop DEUS, Zyfai, Peaq, Giza until on-chain clears.
- RWA (3%): Gold 3%, SPY 0% — SPY correlates with factor at the 94th, defeating the counter-cycle purpose.