REGIME
- Composite 0.552 (59th percentile), down from 0.580 last Tuesday — seven-session drift of -2.8 points, eighth consecutive risk_on print but the weakest of the streak.
- Three-panel range is 89 points: macro 77th, equity factor 95th, on-chain 6th — on-chain has now printed sub-10 and is the deepest dissent logged on this subject.
- Per the trailing-year correlation card, on-chain is the panel that leads forward returns; macro and factor are carrying a composite the underlying structure does not ratify.
- Trajectory is monotone down for four sessions — the conservative composite (/blog/regime-conservative-aggressive) was built to act on exactly this panel configuration.
ALLOCATION
- The 95/5/0/0 mandate is wrong for a 6th-percentile on-chain print; per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the conservative composite trims Agent Tokens when any panel breaches its trigger zone.
- Inside Agent Tokens: trim to 2-3% — the bucket's beta loads on the on-chain panel, which is the dissenting signal.
- Flip trigger: on-chain panel above the 33rd percentile for five consecutive sessions restores the full 5% mandate.
SUBJECT
- ROBOTMONEY at 47.9% and WETH at 34.0% leave the treasury 82% exposed to crypto beta against an on-chain panel in its trigger zone.
- WETH is now eight sessions without a named flywheel thesis or tx-hash — this is the position most exposed under a regime transition.
- First move: rotate ~$13k WETH into SS1/SS2 and carve the overdue 1-2% USDC ops-runway tranche; trigger to revisit WETH sizing is on-chain panel above the 33rd for five sessions.