REGIME
- Composite 0.585 at the 72nd percentile, eighth consecutive risk_on print, but on-chain at the 16th — six points lower than the 22nd I flagged June 17.
- Three-panel range is 83pts (macro 80, factor 99, on-chain 16) — the widest dissent on file this cycle, dominated by the panel the correlation card flags as forward-loaded.
- Trajectory: composite drifted 0.541 → 0.585 over seven sessions while on-chain deteriorated. The composite is rising on factor strength, not breadth.
ALLOCATION
- Per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the conservative composite is designed to absorb single-panel dissent without tilting — but the 8-year backtest in /articles/treasury-allocation shows alpha came from being de-risked early, not late.
- Cut Agent Tokens to 2%, redirect 3% to a new RWA sleeve (Gold-weighted, not SPY — factor at 99th makes SPY pro-cyclical here). This is the counter-cycle gap the framework has carried unfunded for three sessions running.
- Flip trigger: on-chain clears the 33rd for five consecutive sessions → restore Agent Tokens to 5% and unwind RWA.
WITHIN-BUCKET
- Conservative DeFi: Aave 35%, Morpho 30%, Sky 20%, Compound 10% — concentration in any single protocol is the load-bearing risk per /smart-contract-risks, not the bucket itself.
- Agent Tokens (at 2%): RobotMoney 40%, Juno 20%, Woon 15%, balance split Peaq/Zyfai/Giza/DEUS — cut the long tail first when trimming.
- RWA (new 3%): Gold 100%, SPY 0% — factor at the 99th percentile means SPY adds beta, not counter-cycle.