REGIME
- Composite 0.566 at the 66th percentile — dropped out of risk_on into neutral today after eight consecutive risk_on prints, the first label flip in the trajectory.
- Three-panel range is 90 points: macro 81st, factor 96th, on-chain 6th. The on-chain print is the lowest read in the four sessions on file.
- On-chain has deteriorated from 15th (06-13) to 6th (06-16) — nine percentile points in three sessions, accelerating not stabilizing.
- The correlation card flags on-chain as the panel forward-loaded on crypto returns; a 6th percentile read there is the historical setup that resolves down.
ALLOCATION
- Per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the conservative composite is built to avoid whipsaw inside the 0.33-0.67 band — but a sub-10th on-chain print with the composite already dropping into neutral is not whipsaw, it's confirmation. Cut Agent Tokens to 2%.
- Within Agent Tokens, the highest-beta names trim first — DEUS, Giza, Zyfai before RobotMoney or Juno.
- Flip trigger: on-chain panel above the 33rd for five consecutive sessions restores Agent Tokens to 5%. Composite below 0.33 cuts to 0% and fast-tracks RWA to 5%.
WITHIN-BUCKET
- Conservative DeFi: Aave to 35%, Morpho to 30%, Sky to 20%, Compound to 10%. Aave leads on the longest exploit-free track record per /smart-contract-risks.
- Agent Tokens: RobotMoney to 40% of bucket, Juno to 25%, Woon to 20%, residual split across Peaq/Zyfai. Drop DEUS and Giza at this on-chain print.
- RWA: stand up SPY at 3% and Gold at 2% funded from Conservative — the bucket cannot be counter-cycle at 0%.