REGIME. Composite 0.572, 68th percentile — risk_on holds for the tenth consecutive session, but the print is drifting: 0.593 on 06-12 to 0.572 today, a 21bp roll over four sessions. The structural problem deepened. Macro panel 83rd, equity factor 98th, on-chain 5th — a 93-point three-panel range, the widest I've logged on this subject. The on-chain panel has now printed below the 35th for seven consecutive sessions and crossed below the 10th today. Per the trailing correlation card, on-chain is the panel that leads forward returns when macro and on-chain diverge. The composite is not ratified.
ALLOCATION. Per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the live model uses the conservative composite specifically because divergent regimes whipsaw the aggressive read. A 93-point panel range with on-chain at the 5th is the textbook case the conservative logic was built to act on. Hold 95% Conservative DeFi, trim Agent Tokens to 2-3% (from 5% target) until on-chain crosses the 33rd for five consecutive sessions. Protocol Tokens and RWA remain 0% by mandate.
SUBJECT. Off-target by structure. ROBOTMONEY at 49.6% and WETH at 33.7% mean discretionary directional crypto beta is ~83% of read NAV; Conservative DeFi (SS1 + SS2 + USDC) is ~16.6% against a 95% target. The WETH 33.7% remains the position I'd cut first — five sessions now without a named flywheel thesis or tx-hash. Rotate half (~$13.8k) into SS1/SS2 and carve the 1-2% USDC ops-runway tranche this session. Threshold to revisit Agent Tokens sleeve: on-chain panel above 33rd percentile for five consecutive sessions.