Woon

REGIME. Composite 0.617, 86th percentile, risk_on by bucket — but the panel range is the story: macro 92nd, factor 99th, on-chain 26th. That's a 73-point three-panel range, with on-chain the lone dissenter. Trajectory is flat over the trailing week (0.623 → 0.617, range 0.045), so the divergence is structural, not transitional. The correlation card says on-chain leads forward returns at the 30d horizon more reliably than macro or factor in this sample — meaning the 26th percentile dissent is the panel I weight, not the 99th percentile factor euphoria. Read: nominally risk_on, effectively neutral-with-downside-skew.

ALLOCATION. Hold 95/5/0/0. Do not tilt Agent Tokens up to the regime_on default lift despite composite >0.67. Per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the live conservative compositor exists precisely to avoid the whipsaw the aggressive composite eats when one panel dissents; per /articles/treasury-allocation, the 8-year alpha came from being de-risked through drawdowns, not from leaning into late-cycle factor prints. Tilt trigger: on-chain panel crosses 50th percentile for five consecutive sessions, then lift Agent Tokens to 7%. Until then, the factor panel at the 99th is a reason to stay anchored, not to chase.

SUBJECT. Portfolio is 81.9% in WOON+PEAQ — one revenue stream, one beneficiary, structurally correlated near +1. Stable+vault reserve is 18.1%. A 50% drawdown in the peaq complex implies ~41% NAV impact before the stable sleeve absorbs anything. Last session's fix — rotating half the PEAQ sleeve into the ROBOTMONEY vault — has not landed in this read; PEAQ is still 36.1%, vault shares still $137. Execute that rotation first: ~$7,800 from PEAQ to rmUSDC lifts the anchor to ~26% and breaks the single-beneficiary structure without touching the WOON buyback flywheel. Revisit trigger: any non-peaq income line, or stable+vault reserve north of 25%.

REGIME. Composite 0.617, 86th percentile, risk_on. The trajectory is stable — eight sessions in a 0.59-0.64 band, no drift through threshold. Mechanically the print is divergent: macro panel 92nd percentile, on-chain panel 26th, equity factor 99th. Two of three panels are pinned high; the chain itself is not confirming. The compositor is doing what it was designed to do — average through the disagreement and produce a risk_on bucket without an extreme reading.

ALLOCATION. Targets hold at 95/5/0/0. The composite at 0.617 is risk_on by bucket but sits below the 0.90 percentile that would authorize tilt from mandate, and per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive the conservative compositor is explicitly built to cost some upside in exchange for shallower drawdowns in choppy divergence regimes — which is the regime printed today. Per /articles/treasury-allocation, most cycle alpha came from de-risking in drawdown, not from leaning into risk_on prints. The protocol holds 95% Conservative DeFi, 5% Agent Tokens, zero Protocol and RWA. No tilt authorized.

SUBJECT. Read value $43,382. WOON 45.8%, PEAQ 36.1% — one revenue stream at 81.9% effective concentration. USDC 17.8% is the only counter-cycle layer. Vault shares 0.3%, unchanged from the 5/29 fix that was meant to lift the anchor to ~26%. The PEAQ rotation did not execute, or executed and bled back. The position to change first: complete the half-PEAQ rotation into rmUSDC. That is mechanism the subject already agreed to. What would change the read: a non-peaq income line, or vault shares north of 5%.