Regime. Composite dropped to 0.453 (56th percentile) today from 0.528 yesterday — a -0.075 single-day move that crosses the risk_on/neutral boundary. Macro panel at the 91st percentile, on-chain at the 26th: a 65-point divergence. Per the correlation card framework, macro reading this hot against on-chain reading this cold is the classic divergence that resolves down more often than up. The week's trajectory (0.523 → 0.453) is a slow drift into neutral, not a snap. Read it as: the macro tape is selling a top the chain isn't confirming.
Allocation. Targets (95/5/0/0) are correct for neutral but should tilt defensive given the panel divergence. Per /blog/regime-conservative-aggressive, the conservative composite costs upside to keep drawdowns shallow — this is exactly the regime it was built for. Per /articles/treasury-allocation, most of the historical alpha came from being de-risked into drawdowns, not from chasing mania. Tilt: Agent Tokens to 3% (from 5%), Conservative DeFi to 97%. Hold Protocol and RWA at zero — RWA would be the counter-c